Iron ore futures fell on Wednesday as a clouded demand outlook dampened market sentiment.
Earlier this week, the Politburo signaled a shift in policy, pledging a moderately loose monetary stance and more proactive fiscal stimulus measures for the coming year. This announcement, in contrast to the cautious rhetoric of the past decade, briefly fueled optimism, lifting iron ore prices. However, while the policy shift offered hope for economic revival, the iron ore market continues to face structural challenges.
Key headwinds, such as high port-side inventories, environmental restrictions, and weak steel demand, are weighing on the market. ING analysts forecast that iron ore prices will remain under pressure in 2025, driven by bearish steel demand, strong iron ore shipments, and high port inventories. They anticipate a modest price rise in Q1 but expect prices to average USD 90 per ton in Q4, with a 2025 annual average of USD 95 per ton.
Reflecting cautious sentiment, major Chinese steelmaker Baosteel has opted to maintain domestic HRC prices for January 2025 sales.
In the Dalian Commodity Exchange, iron ore futures dropped 1.64pct to 809.5 yuan (USD 111.6) per ton. Coke futures rose 1.07pct to 1,895 yuan (USD 261). Coking coal futures slipped 0.34pct to 1,182 yuan (USD 163).
In the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar futures fell 0.15pct to 3,413 yuan (USD 471) per ton. HRC futures declined 0.17pct to 3,561 yuan (USD 491). Wire rod futures gained 0.72pct to 3,619 yuan (USD 499). Stainless steel futures edged down 0.15pct to 13,120 yuan (USD 1,809).
1 USD / 7.25 yuan
| Material | Closing Price (in yuan) |
Difference from Night Session (pct) |
Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct) |
| Wire Rod | 3,619 |
0.72 |
1.02 |
| HRC | 3,561 |
-0.17 |
0.34 |
| Rebar | 3,413 |
-0.15 |
0.32 |
| Stainless Steel | 13,120 |
-0.15 |
0.61 |
| Iron Ore | 809.5 |
-1.64 |
-0.93 |
| Coke | 1,895 |
1.07 |
1.82 |
| Coking Coal | 1,182 |
-0.34 |
1.86 |
