China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) anticipates that China’s steel demand in 2025 will likely remain stable compared to current levels, though risks remain due to mounting trade frictions and challenges in key sectors. Despite China’s position as the world’s largest steel market, consuming over 800 mln tons annually, the industry faces ongoing structural changes, with manufacturing emerging as a primary demand driver.
Supply-demand imbalances, rising trade protectionism, and high raw material costs continue to challenge the sector, according to CISA. In the first three quarters, apparent crude steel consumption dropped by 6.2pct YoY. August and September saw steep declines of 13.5pct and 11.1pct, respectively, signaling pressure on the supply-demand balance.
The World Steel Association forecasts that China’s domestic steel demand will account for less than half of global demand in 2023, largely due to a downturn in the real estate sector. CISA reports that demand is shifting toward manufacturing, which now comprises 48pct of steel demand, while construction remains at 52pct. Although demand for construction steel is slowing, minor improvements are expected as the sector undergoes structural optimization.
Deputy Secretary Shi Hongwei of CISA suggests that the manufacturing sector’s share of steel demand will continue to grow in 2025, supporting the overall market.
Meanwhile, China’s steel exports increased 21.2pct YoY in the first three quarters, totaling 80.71 mln tons. However, average export prices fell 21.6pct to USD 770 per ton, as high raw material costs squeezed profit margins.
The rise of protectionist policies poses further obstacles, with anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into Chinese steel products surging. Twenty-three cases were recorded this year, with projections indicating the total could exceed 25 by year-end. CISA Vice President Jiang Wei highlights the rapid escalation of trade barriers, increasing risks for steel exports.
