The European steel market faces a challenging outlook, driven by low steel demand, a downturn in steel-using sectors, and persistently high import shares. These factors, along with a weak economic forecast, rising geopolitical tensions, and higher energy costs for the EU compared to other major regions, are deepening the downward trend seen in recent quarters. According to Eurofer’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, apparent steel consumption is projected to decline by 1.8pct in 2024, a reversal from a previous forecast of 1.4pct growth.
The outlook for steel-using sectors is also expected to contract by 2.7pct for 2024. Recovery projections for 2025 remain modest, with apparent consumption expected to increase by 3.8pct and steel-using sector output by 1.6pct.
“Such data further confirm the urgent need for action at the EU level to preserve sustainable steel production and quality jobs in Europe while supporting decarbonisation investments,” stated Axel Eggert, Director General of Eurofer. He emphasized the need to address global overcapacity, unfair trade practices, high energy prices, and access to ferrous scrap, while advocating for lead markets for green steel produced in Europe.
In Q2 2024, apparent steel consumption decreased by 1.3pct, totaling 34.8 mln tons, continuing the downward trend contrary to earlier expectations of improved demand. Steel demand remains highly uncertain, with a modest recovery of +3.8pct projected for 2025, though volumes are likely to stay below pre-pandemic levels. Domestic deliveries contracted by 1.7pct in Q2, a slight improvement from the 5.6pct contraction in Q1. Imports also decreased by 1.5pct, but their overall share reached a historical high of 28pct.
Steel-using sectors saw a notable decline of 2.1pct, affected by a general recession across major sectors including construction, mechanical engineering, domestic appliances, metalware, and automotive, which stalled after seven consecutive quarters of growth. Despite three recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), high economic uncertainty is expected to persist.
Eurofer, located in Brussels and founded in 1976, represents the entirety of steel production in the European Union, encompassing steel companies and national steel federations. Major steel companies and national federations from Turkey, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom are associate members.
