Iron ore futures remained largely unchanged on Tuesday as market sentiment was weighed down by uncertainty over steel demand, potential production cuts, and rising global trade tensions.
Hopes for major economic stimulus from Beijing during the annual Two Sessions meetings faded after the government reaffirmed its economic growth target of around 5pct for the year. The announced policy measures, including USD 41 bln in consumer rebates for trading in old cars and appliances and support for the housing market, failed to impress investors. However, some analysts believe that the ambitious 5pct growth target suggests further stimulus may be on the horizon, especially given the escalating trade tensions with the U.S. In recent weeks, tensions have risen after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tariff hike on Chinese goods to 20pct, prompting retaliatory measures from Beijing.
Global stock markets are already under pressure from these trade disputes and broader recession fears. In a further escalation, Trump ordered an additional 25pct tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, raising total duties to 50pct starting March 12, 2025. This decision was in response to Ontario’s move to impose a 25pct tax on electricity exports to the U.S.
The iron ore market also faced pressure from China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which announced potential production curbs to reduce overcapacity. Steel demand, which showed promising signs earlier this month, remained sluggish this week. Reflecting this cautious sentiment, major steel producer Baosteel kept its benchmark prices for flat steel unchanged for April deliveries.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded May iron ore contract remained steady at 774.5 yuan (USD 106.9) per ton, showing a slight increase from the previous morning session. Coke and coking coal futures declined by 1.28pct and 1.67pct, settling at 1,622 yuan (USD 224) per ton and 1,061 yuan (USD 147) per ton, respectively.
Meanwhile, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar futures dropped 0.83pct to 3,209 yuan (USD 443) per ton, while HRC futures also fell 0.83pct to 3,347 yuan (USD 462) per ton. Wire rod futures declined 0.96pct to 3,416 yuan (USD 472) per ton, whereas stainless steel futures edged up 0.48pct to 13,510 yuan (USD 1,866) per ton.
1 USD / 7.23 yuan
| Material | Closing Price (in yuan) |
Difference from Night Session (pct) |
Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct) |
| Wire Rod | 3,416 |
-0.96 |
-0.26 |
| HRC | 3,347 |
-0.42 |
-0.06 |
| Rebar | 3,209 |
-0.83 |
-0.34 |
| Stainless Steel | 13,510 |
0.48 |
0.15 |
| Iron Ore | 774.5 |
-0.06 |
0.71 |
| Coke | 1,622 |
-1.28 |
0.22 |
| Coking Coal | 1,061 |
-1.67 |
-0.24 |
