The global long steel products market continues to face a weak and uncertain business environment, with no meaningful improvement in the supply-demand balance, according to the latest short-range outlook from the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (IREPAS).
A major disruption came with the Trump Administration’s unexpected move to double U.S. import duties on steel to 50pct, catching many exporters off guard. The sudden increase created uncertainty, forcing exporters to reconsider U.S. shipments. Negotiations are ongoing between suppliers, buyers, and traders over who bears the cost for cargoes that arrived after the tariff hike.
The uncertainty has pushed buyers into a wait-and-see mode, especially amid reports of possible exemption talks between the U.S. and countries like Mexico and Canada. U.S. importers are struggling with shipments already in transit or under letters of credit, leading some to absorb significant losses or cancel orders.
While U.S. demand remains moderate, prices are rising due to the tariff protection. However, domestic prices are still not high enough to support fresh imports. High interest rates continue to weigh on construction activity and delay investment, frustrating most steel consumers, except for a few domestic mills benefiting from the trade measures.
Outside the U.S., competition remains intense, particularly from China and Southeast Asia. Despite stimulus efforts, China continues to export heavily, pressuring other regional exporters.
In Europe, a weak euro and diverted Asian volumes have led to a surge in cheap steel imports, while local mills face rising energy costs and subdued demand. Mills are struggling to cover melting costs as scrap prices stay high, and extended summer holidays have further slowed activity. Without a demand rebound in September, production cuts may follow.
Some market participants hope that recent tariffs may be reversed or softened. While interest rate cuts are anticipated in both the U.S. and Turkey, their timing remains uncertain. In Turkey, demand remains sluggish, except for limited construction in earthquake-affected regions and urban renewal projects.
Overall, the market remains structurally weak and highly competitive. With prevailing uncertainty, IREPAS expects little movement in July and August, with no clear drivers until at least September. The short-term outlook remains unsatisfactory.
