The global long steel products market faces significant pressure due to rising Chinese exports, which show no signs of slowing. The latest outlook from the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas) highlights growing concerns over inflation, delaying interest rate cuts and adding uncertainty, particularly with Trump’s policy direction still unclear.
In the U.S., the market remains in a wait-and-see mode as infrastructure projects stall amid a government spending freeze. High interest rates continue to delay investments and home purchases, while labor shortages drive up construction costs. Domestic rebar producers are holding off on price increases for another month as they await clarity on potential tariffs on Mexico. Imports remain low, and competition is primarily among domestic producers, Irepas noted.
Outside the U.S., China’s role is pivotal. The key question for the global market is whether China will sustain exports above 100 mln tons or scale back to stabilize conditions.
In the EU, demand for long steel products remains weak, with high costs exacerbating the situation. Seasonal and structural slowdowns in construction add to market uncertainty. Energy costs have surged to levels unseen since 2022, driven by a cold winter and Germany’s base load shortage, forcing mills to consider price hikes and capacity cuts. Feralpi halted production in January, while Riva Germany plans shutdowns through March.
The EU’s import quota for “all other countries” was exhausted within days, primarily due to large shipments to Bulgaria and Romania. Turkey and Algeria struggle to compete in the EU market, while German and Italian mills’ price hikes have yet to gain full acceptance. However, restocking needs and a strong USD may soon support these increases, Irepas said.
Protectionism is becoming a dominant trend, with economies increasingly shielding their markets, ultimately harming middle-class consumers and industries. Mills are forced to cut capacity utilization, raising production costs and squeezing profitability, making net-zero commitments harder to achieve.
Given these challenges, the market remains unstable, with an unpredictable outlook for the next quarter, Irepas concluded.
