The latest short-range outlook by the World Steel Association forecasts a growth in steel demand in the MENA region for 2024, following a significant slowdown during 2022-2023. Growth is expected to reach 5.3pct to 71.3 mln tons in 2024, followed by a 3.8pct increase to 74.1 mln tons in 2025, compared to 0.6pct growth last year.
In the Middle East, steel consumption is projected to rise by 4.9pct to 56.9 mln tons in 2024 and 3.3pct to 58.7 mln tons in 2025, after a 4.2pct increase last year. African steel consumption is similarly forecasted to grow by 4.8pct in both 2024 and 2025, reaching 37.1 mln tons and 38.9 mln tons, respectively, following a modest 0.5pct rise in 2023.
Turkey saw a sharp 17.2pct jump in steel demand to 38.1 mln tons in 2023, driven by post-earthquake reconstruction efforts. However, a 5.5pct decline to 36 mln tons is expected in 2024, with a further 1.4pct drop to 35.5 mln tons in 2025.
Globally, the World Steel Association predicts a 0.9pct decline in steel demand to 1.751 bln tons in 2024. However, a recovery is expected in 2025, with global steel demand projected to increase by 1.2pct, excluding China. Demand in the developing world, led by India and other emerging economies, is forecast to grow by 3.5pct in 2024 and 4.2pct in 2025.
India continues to be a major driver of global steel demand, with an 8.0pct increase projected over 2024 and 2025, fueled by strong infrastructure investments. Conversely, steel demand in developed economies is expected to decline by 2.0pct in 2024, with a moderate recovery of 1.9pct anticipated in 2025.
The outlook for China remains challenging, with steel demand projected to fall by 3.0pct in 2024 and 1.0pct in 2025, although potential government intervention could mitigate these declines, World Steel Association said.
Commenting on the outlook, Dr. Martin Theuringer, Managing Director, German Steel Association and Chair of the World Steel Economics Committee, said that we are making significant downward revisions to our 2024 steel demand outlook for most major economies, including China, reflecting the persistent weakness in manufacturing alongside lingering global economic headwinds. Most other major developing economies are expected to witness a rebound in steel demand in 2024, recovering from the slowdown experienced in 2022-2023.
