The International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas) reports that the global long steel products market remains subdued, with demand weak across all regions and the holiday period adding further slowdown. Despite softer production in China, exports remain strong, meaning the overall supply-demand balance has not improved. Customers also see no signs of a near-term pickup in consumption.
A notable shift has occurred on the cost side. Scrap supply in Europe has tightened, partly in anticipation of CBAM, while higher electricity prices are pushing production costs up even though finished steel demand is unchanged. As a result, the market has become even more cost-driven.
The EU has seen temporary price gains and slightly firmer demand following the announcement of new safeguard measures, but Irepas notes that overall demand continues to contract. Rising domestic capacity has widened the imbalance, and despite CBAM and stricter safeguards, price increases remain marginal due to weak consumption.
China’s crude steel output fell 3.9pct YoY in the first ten months of the year, marking a meaningful production cut. However, with domestic demand deteriorating further, Chinese mills continue to export aggressively, limiting the global impact of lower output. Irepas adds that hopes for a major stimulus from Beijing are fading.
In the US, demand is flat, with stockists reducing inventories ahead of year-end and deferring purchases into 2026. High interest rates are delaying construction projects, while infrastructure spending is progressing slowly. Imports remain low due to tariffs and domestic competition. Several countries, including Mexico and the EU, are seeking tariff exemptions, which could shift trade flows if granted.
Turkey’s scrap imports fell 7.3pct YoY to 15.23 mln tons in January-October, and sudden spikes in scrap prices could trigger further output cuts.
Irepas warns that major uncertainties, such as CBAM implementation, potential changes to US Section 232 tariffs pending a Supreme Court ruling, and intense competition for limited demand, are making forward planning extremely challenging. Overall, the association describes current market conditions as highly unstable.
