Iron ore futures edged lower on Thursday amid lingering concerns over the demand outlook and a decline in Chinese crude steel production.
Sentiment was dampened by data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), which reported a 7.4pct drop in crude steel output by its member mills in late July compared to mid-month, falling to 1.982 mln tons.
Despite the decline, analysts expect Chinese steel production to remain elevated, particularly from blast furnaces, thanks to supportive profit margins.
Iron ore prices also found some support from record Chinese steel exports. In the first seven months of 2025, China exported 67.9 mln tons of steel, up 11.4pct YoY, even as rising global protectionism threatens to slow overseas demand.
Overall, the outlook for iron ore remains bearish due to potential curbs on steel production, driven by environmental goals and efforts to rein in excess capacity. CISA has urged the industry to align on output targets, market positioning, and price expectations, while avoiding disorderly competition and unchecked expansion.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded September iron ore contract slipped 0.25pct to 793 yuan (USD 110.3) per ton. Coking coal rose 2.29pct to 1,229.5 yuan (USD 171), while coke gained 1.71pct to 1,667.5 yuan (USD 232).
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar was flat at 3,231 yuan (USD 450) per ton. HRC dipped 0.35pct to 3,440 yuan (USD 479), wire rod edged up to 3,468 yuan (USD 483), and stainless steel rose 0.54pct to 13,000 yuan (USD 1,809).
1 USD / 7.18 yuan
CHINESE STEEL FUTURES
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Date: 8/07/2025 |
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| Material | Closing Price (in yuan) |
Difference from Night Session (pct) |
Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct) |
| Wire Rod | 3,468 |
0.03 |
0.17 |
| HRC | 3,440 |
-0.35 |
-0.32 |
| Rebar | 3,231 |
0.03 |
-0.09 |
| Stainless Steel | 13,000 |
0.54 |
0.50 |
| Iron Ore | 793 |
-0.25 |
-0.19 |
| Coke | 1,667.5 |
1.71 |
1.38 |
| Coking Coal | 1,229.5 |
2.29 |
0.69 |
