Turkey’s steel market in 2025 was shaped above all by scrap price behaviour and margin discipline, with developments in billet imports, production levels, and Turkish long steel export offers reinforcing a market environment defined more by cost control than demand recovery. While rebar export volumes improved and wire rod shipments remained broadly stable, pricing power across long products remained constrained throughout the year.
Turkey’s scrap import prices followed a volatile but generally subdued trajectory in 2025, reflecting weak finished steel demand and growing competition from alternative raw material routes. Weekly assessments for HMS 1&2 (80:20) CFR Turkey showed that price recoveries were repeatedly capped, with mills unwilling to commit to forward purchases amid persistent margin pressure.
Scrap buying patterns remained highly tactical. Monthly imports rose to around 1.9 mln tons in April, before falling sharply to approximately 1.2 mln tons in June, highlighting rapid shifts in mill sentiment. Further fluctuations were observed in the second half of the year, with imports rebounding briefly in July and September before softening again in August and October.
By year-end, scrap prices stabilized broadly in the USD 350-370 per ton CFR Turkey range. While suppliers resisted deeper price cuts, citing limited growth in global scrap availability and elevated freight costs, the lack of a meaningful recovery in finished steel prices continued to cap upside potential.
Click here to view the HMS 80:20 (CFR Turkey) price graph
Turkey’s crude steel production offered intermittent support but failed to alter the broader trend. Monthly output remained broadly stable through much of 2025, holding above 3 mln tons in several months, according to World Steel Association data.
A key factor weighing on Turkey’s scrap market in 2025 was the sharp increase in billet imports, particularly from Asia. Turkey imported approximately 3.65 mln tons of billets during January-October, up 31pct YoY.
Supplies from China rose especially sharply, exceeding 830,000 tons in Jan-Oct 2025, more than tripling on a YoY basis. Malaysia and Russia also emerged as major suppliers during the period. Monthly billet arrivals surged notably in the second quarter, peaking in May, when imports jumped to nearly 478,000 tons.
The availability of competitively priced imported billets provided Turkish mills with a direct substitute for scrap-based melting, reducing scrap intake requirements and diluting demand for raw materials. This substitution effect was particularly evident during periods when scrap prices attempted to recover, reinforcing the structural ceiling on scrap prices throughout the year.
Turkish rebar prices remained under pressure for most of 2025, despite a notable improvement in export volumes. Weekly FOB Turkey rebar assessments indicated that price increases were difficult to sustain, as competition in key export markets and subdued domestic construction demand continued to limit mills’ pricing leverage.
Click here to view the Rebar (FOB Turkey) price graph
Turkey exported around 3.4 mln tons of rebar in the first ten months of 2025, up 22pct YoY, with shipments supported by demand from markets in the Middle East and parts of Europe. However, improved volumes did not translate into stronger prices. Buyers remained price-sensitive, while competition from other regional suppliers further capped price upside.
Rebar pricing remained closely linked to scrap costs and billet availability, with mills prioritizing margin preservation rather than volume-driven price competition.
Wire rod prices from Turkey followed a largely range-bound pattern during 2025, reflecting stable but unremarkable demand conditions, particularly in Europe. Weekly price assessments showed limited volatility, with mills balancing controlled output against ongoing competition from alternative suppliers.
Click here to view the Wire Rod (FOB Turkey) price graph
Turkish wire rod exports totalled approximately 768,400 tons in Jan-Oct 2025, broadly unchanged YoY. While shipments to destinations such as Romania, Bulgaria, Libya and Australia provided a degree of volume stability, demand lacked the momentum required to support a sustained price recovery.
Looking ahead, market dynamics may shift following changes to Turkey’s Inward Processing Regime (DIR). The revised framework now requires exporters to source at least 25pct of semi-finished steel domestically, while the time allowed to export finished goods produced from imported materials has been shortened, for example, from six to four months for billet-to-long products. These changes are expected to encourage greater use of domestically sourced inputs, potentially increasing scrap demand and reducing reliance on imported semi-finished products in 2026.
