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Thursday, July 23, 2026

Iron ore slips on rising supply expectations, weaker demand outlook

Iron ore futures weakened on Wednesday as expectations of rising global supply continued to pressure the market, while increased blast furnace maintenance at Chinese steel mills added to concerns over near-term demand.

On the supply side, Vale’s report of its highest second-quarter iron ore production since 2018 reinforced expectations of ample seaborne supply. Concerns over potential supply disruptions from Australia also eased after BHP and unions at Port Hedland reported progress in labour negotiations, reducing the likelihood of strike action. Meanwhile, the anticipated ramp-up of Guinea’s Simandou iron ore project continued to weigh on the longer-term supply outlook.

Market insiders said blast furnace maintenance has intensified in July, but the resulting decline in steel output has been accompanied by equally weak consumption, leaving little improvement in overall market sentiment.

Chinese traders said the outlook for steel exports remains uncertain as rising freight rates and worsening port congestion continue to disrupt global logistics and increase shipping costs. Domestic spot steel prices also remained under pressure as the market lacked fresh bullish drivers.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded September iron ore contract fell 1.00pct to 739.5 yuan (USD 109.1) per ton. Coking coal futures rose 1.04pct to 1,266 yuan (USD 187) per ton, while coke futures increased 0.16pct to 1,824.5 yuan (USD 269) per ton.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar futures edged down 0.03pct to 3,083 yuan (USD 455) per ton. HRC futures slipped 0.06pct to 3,282 yuan (USD 485) per ton. Wire rod futures declined 0.21pct to 3,311 yuan (USD 489) per ton, while stainless steel futures rose 0.31pct to 14,780 yuan (USD 2,182) per ton.

1 USD / 6.77 yuan

ItemClosing Price (in yuan)Difference from Night Session (pct)Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct)
Wire Rod3,311.00▼ -0.21▼ -0.42
Hot Rolled Coils3,282.00▼ -0.06▼ -0.46
Rebar3,083.00▼ -0.03▼ -0.39
Stainless Steel14,780.00▲ 0.31▼ -0.14
Iron ore739.50▼ -1.00▼ -1.28
Coke1,824.50▲ 0.16▼ -0.69
Coking Coal1,266.00▲ 1.04▼ -0.71

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