Iron ore futures rose on Wednesday, supported by expectations of stronger demand as Tangshan steel output curbs near their end.
Beijing had ordered Tangshan mills to cut production from August 25 to September 3 for a military parade. With the restrictions set to be lifted, traders anticipate a rebound in iron ore consumption.
In the short term, demand is expected to remain firm. However, the longer-term outlook is bearish. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2025 iron ore price target to USD 95 per ton but forecasts a sharp decline to USD 80 per ton in 2026 due to a global surplus. The bank cited supply cuts and post-restriction steel production as near-term drivers, while warning of a 200 mln-ton surplus between 2026-2028 from expanded output in Australia and Brazil, combined with weakening Chinese demand.
Additional risks include oversupply in the steel market, weaker mill margins, and rising global protectionist measures weighing on Chinese steel exports, all factors that could dampen iron ore consumption.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded January iron ore contract rose 0.71pct to 777 yuan (USD 109) per ton. Coking coal slipped 1.25pct to 1,106 yuan (USD 155), while coke fell 0.59pct to 1,594 yuan (USD 223).
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar eased 0.32pct to 3,106 yuan (USD 435), HRC edged down 0.09pct to 3,299 yuan (USD 462), and stainless steel fell 0.54pct to 12,915 yuan (USD 1,809). Wire rod inched up 0.12pct to 3,269 yuan (USD 458) per ton.
1 USD / 7.13 yuan
CHINESE STEEL FUTURES
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Date: 9/3/2025 |
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| Material | Closing Price (in yuan) |
Difference from Night Session (pct) |
Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct) |
| Wire Rod | 3,269 |
0.12 |
-0.18 |
| HRC | 3,299 |
-0.09 |
0.03 |
| Rebar | 3,106 |
-0.32 |
-0.35 |
| Stainless Steel | 12,915 |
-0.54 |
-0.35 |
| Iron Ore | 777 |
0.71 |
0.71 |
| Coke | 1,594 |
-0.59 |
0.16 |
| Coking Coal | 1,106 |
-1.25 |
-0.59 |
