The global long steel products market remains under pressure, with no signs of improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, according to the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas).
Irepas said market conditions have deteriorated in recent months, driven by supply-side disruptions rather than demand recovery. Ongoing conflicts, particularly in Iran and Ukraine, have intensified pressure on global supply chains, while higher energy, electricity and freight costs have pushed prices higher.
The association noted that recent price increases have largely been accepted by the market, but warned that sustained high energy costs could weigh on economic activity. Much will depend on the durability of the ceasefire in the Iran conflict, with risks of broader economic slowdown if tensions escalate.
Trade flows are also being affected, with US ferrous scrap exports declining due to stronger domestic consumption and weaker demand in Asia, while the UK is increasingly shifting to containerized scrap shipments to Turkey.
Despite the challenges, some short-term support is emerging from precautionary buying. Contractors are securing material in advance for confirmed projects, while inventory building in an inflationary environment is supporting apparent demand.
Regional dynamics remain mixed. Competition in the US is largely domestic, while the EU market combines strong internal competition with limited imports. In other regions, competition remains intense, with exporters actively targeting multiple markets.
Irepas said rising input costs, particularly energy and scrap, continue to pressure margins and increase competition globally. While the market has absorbed cost-driven price increases to some extent, uncertainty remains over broader economic impacts and potential shifts in supply chains.
Looking ahead, the outlook for the next quarter remains uncertain and heavily dependent on geopolitical developments. A sustained ceasefire could support demand recovery and market stabilization, while renewed conflict could increase recession risks, delay projects and further weaken market conditions.
