The International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas) reports that the global long steel market is structurally oversupplied and overcrowded, with cutthroat competition and razor-thin margins.
In the United States, Irepas criticized the recent decision to impose a blanket 50pct Section 232 tariff on all steel imports, calling it an unprecedented move that blindsides importers and benefits domestic producers. The sudden enforcement, with no transition period, undermines the values of fairness, predictability, and rule of law long associated with the U.S. market. If upheld, the duty could make the U.S. the world’s most expensive steel market, isolating it just when global cooperation is most needed.
In Europe, demand remains soft, and imports are capping potential price rises. Without a significant uptick in end-user consumption, prices are expected to stay flat or decline, especially with rising volumes of low-cost Asian billet.
In Turkey, demand is also weak, and high raw material costs are opening the door to more aggressive Far East and Southeast Asian suppliers.
Asian billet prices are falling almost daily, undercutting scrap-based producers. Billet is now cheaper than melting scrap, making many EAF-based mills uncompetitive. This has shifted market power toward low-cost billet exporters.
Meanwhile, China is reasserting dominance. Its long steel exports more than doubled in Q1 2025, driven by low blast furnace costs, falling domestic demand, and export incentives. The surge is policy-driven, not market-driven, and is causing serious displacement across Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, with even South Korean mills closing lines for the first time in decades.
Irepas noted that market conditions are extremely unstable: demand is weak, profits are elusive, and while many are quoting prices, few orders are being finalized. The outlook remains poor, with political decisions now playing a critical role in shaping the future.