Iron ore futures decline on uncertain demand outlook

Iron ore futures weakened on Monday as high port inventories and weaker Chinese economic data offset improving steel market sentiment and stronger coking coal prices.

Chinese steel traders said finished steel inventories continued to decline gradually, while buying activity improved in some regions as the market moved closer to September.

However, the broader demand outlook remains challenging. China’s crude steel output fell 3.1pct YoY to 577 mln tons in January-July, with July output declining 3.6pct YoY to 76.9 mln tons.

July economic data also pointed to weaker domestic demand, with industrial production growth slowing to 4.5pct and retail sales rising only 0.6pct YoY. Fixed-asset investment declined 6.7pct in January-July, while the property sector remained a major drag on demand.

Iron ore fundamentals also remain under pressure from high port-side inventories and rising global supply.

Coking coal continued to provide support to the ferrous complex, with supply concerns following a coal mine accident in Hunan and continued safety restrictions in Shanxi. Coke prices were also supported by production cuts among loss-making coke producers.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded iron ore contract fell 0.70pct to 706.5 yuan (USD 105) per ton. Coking coal futures rose 1.37pct to 1,522 yuan (USD 226) per ton, while coke futures increased 1.65pct to 2,004 yuan (USD 298) per ton.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, wire rod futures rose 0.40pct to 3,288 yuan (USD 489) per ton, while HRC futures increased 0.43pct to 3,271 yuan (USD 486) per ton. Rebar futures declined 0.10pct to 3,016 yuan (USD 448) per ton, while stainless steel futures increased 0.28pct to 14,275 yuan (USD 2,122) per ton.

1 USD / 6.73 yuan

ItemClosing Price (in yuan)Difference from Night Session (pct)Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct)
Wire Rod3,288.00▲ 0.40▲ 0.88
Hot Rolled Coils3,271.00▲ 0.43▲ 0.34
Rebar3,016.00▼ -0.10▲ 0.03
Stainless Steel14,275.00▲ 0.28▲ 1.12
Iron ore706.50▼ -0.70▼ -0.57
Coke2,004.00▲ 1.65▲ 4.62
Coking Coal1,522.00▲ 1.37▲ 9.72

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