Steel demand in the MENA region is forecast to decline in 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Middle East, before recovering in 2027, the World Steel Association (worldsteel) said in its October Short Range Outlook.
MENA steel demand is projected to fall 9.2pct YoY to 75.2 mln tons in 2026, before rebounding 7.8pct to 81.1 mln tons in 2027.
The decline reflects a sharp contraction in the Middle East, where steel demand is expected to drop 13.9pct YoY to 54.8 mln tons in 2026. Demand is forecast to recover by 8.8pct to 59.6 mln tons in 2027 as delayed projects resume, the security situation improves and supply chains normalize.
The Gulf has been particularly affected by the conflict, with project awards, construction starts and financing decisions being postponed. However, worldsteel expects much of the lost demand to be deferred rather than destroyed, supporting a recovery once regional uncertainty eases.
Africa is expected to maintain growth, with steel demand forecast to rise 4.2pct YoY to 49.3 mln tons in 2026 and a further 4.8pct to 51.6 mln tons in 2027.
In Turkey, steel demand is forecast to rise 2.9pct YoY to 40.4 mln tons in 2026 and a further 3pct to 41.6 mln tons in 2027.
Globally, steel demand is forecast to remain almost flat at 1.722 bln tons in 2026, down 0.1pct YoY, before increasing 1.7pct to 1.752 bln tons in 2027. The latest forecast marks a downward revision from worldsteel’s April outlook, which projected modest growth in 2026 and 2.2pct growth in 2027.
China’s steel demand is expected to contract by 2pct to 780.1 mln tons in 2026 and by a further 1pct to 772.3 mln tons in 2027, as weakness in property investment and infrastructure continues to weigh on consumption.
India remains the fastest-growing major steel market, with demand forecast to rise 7.9pct to 172.4 mln tons in 2026 and 8pct to 186.2 mln tons in 2027, supported by infrastructure investment, construction and manufacturing growth.
Steel demand outside China is expected to increase 1.5pct to 942.1 mln tons in 2026, accelerating to 4pct growth in 2027. Developed economies are forecast to record growth of 1pct in 2026 and 2.2pct in 2027, supported by investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, defence and the energy transition.
Table 1 Regional steel demand forecast
| Region | Steel demand (mln tons) | YoY growth (pct) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 (f) | 2027 (f) | 2025 | 2026 (f) | 2027 (f) | |
| European Union (27) & United Kingdom | 146.7 | 146.3 | 150.8 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 3.1 |
| Other Europe | 46.7 | 47.7 | 49.2 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Russia & other CIS + Ukraine | 54.6 | 52.8 | 53.5 | -7.8 | -3.4 | 1.4 |
| USMCA | 127.3 | 130.2 | 132.8 | -1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Central and South America | 53.7 | 52.4 | 53.5 | 7.4 | -2.5 | 2.2 |
| Africa | 47.3 | 49.3 | 51.6 | 15.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| Middle East | 63.7 | 54.8 | 59.6 | 6.4 | -13.9 | 8.8 |
| Asia and Oceania | 1,183.9 | 1,188.8 | 1,200.8 | -3.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| World | 1,723.8 | 1,722.2 | 1,751.9 | -1.8 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
| World excl. China | 927.8 | 942.1 | 979.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 4.0 |
| Developed economies | 349.4 | 352.8 | 360.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| China | 796.0 | 780.1 | 772.3 | -7.1 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| India | 159.9 | 172.4 | 186.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 8.0 |
| Emerging and developing economies excl. China & India | 418.6 | 416.9 | 433.0 | 4.2 | -0.4 | 3.9 |
| ASEAN (5) | 82.1 | 86.4 | 89.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.2 |
| MENA | 82.8 | 75.2 | 81.1 | 7.8 | -9.2 | 7.8 |
Source: World Steel Association, Short Range Outlook, October 2026. (f) = forecast. ASEAN (5): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.