The global long steel market remains relatively stable, although regional differences are becoming increasingly pronounced due to trade restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and changing import regulations, according to the latest short-range outlook from the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas).
Irepas said protectionist measures in the United States, the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe, and the upcoming reduction of EU steel import quotas are reshaping global trade flows and market dynamics. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to disrupt supply chains, increase logistics and insurance costs, and create uncertainty across steel markets.
In the European Union, buyers have accelerated imports ahead of the new quota system scheduled to take effect on July 1. Market participants are expected to increasingly focus on available supply rather than theoretical low-priced import offers. Meanwhile, the German long steel market remains weak, with higher energy costs, slower investment activity, and declining construction permits weighing on demand.
Irepas noted that deep-sea scrap prices for Turkey remain above USD 400 per ton CFR despite weak rebar demand. Strong scrap prices continue to support finished steel prices, although Turkish mills expect limited long steel demand from the EU following the introduction of the new quota regime. The association also warned that rising temperatures could increase energy costs in Turkey, while political uncertainty may slow investment activity and further weaken construction demand.
The report added that demand for semis has increased following the reduced availability of Iranian material, contributing to higher long steel production costs. Chinese exports of billets and slabs reached around 900,000 tons during January-April 2026.
In the United States, demand remains constrained by high interest rates and weak construction activity. However, trade protection measures, low inventories, and investments in AI infrastructure, energy, and industrial projects continue to provide some support to the market.
Irepas also highlighted strong infrastructure investment in certain regions, particularly in the Balkans and Baltic countries, while government efforts to improve housing affordability could support medium-term demand for long steel products. At the same time, competition remains intense in open markets due to excess global steelmaking capacity, while protected markets continue to benefit from more balanced competitive conditions.
According to the association, the overall market environment remains stable but challenging. While no major short-term disruptions are expected, the outlook varies significantly by region, with Europe and the United States benefiting from infrastructure spending and trade protection measures, while prospects in many other markets remain uncertain.
