Iron ore futures rose slightly on Friday, ending a nine-session losing streak, as rising steel output and improving demand provided support. However, concerns over potential steel production curbs and escalating China-U.S. trade tensions continue to cloud the outlook.
Daily crude steel production among member mills of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) averaged 2.26 mln tons per day during February 21-28, marking a 5 pct increase from mid-February.
Firm domestic steel demand and improved steel mill margins also contributed to the recovery in iron ore prices. Despite the short-term gains, long-term demand remains uncertain. Reports indicate that China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is planning to curb steel overcapacity, though details on the extent of the cuts remain unclear.
Adding to demand concerns, U.S.-China trade tensions intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tariff hike on Chinese goods to 20 pct, prompting Beijing to retaliate with 10 to 15 pct tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and new export restrictions on specific American entities. To counter potential economic fallout, China reaffirmed its 2025 growth target of around 5 pct and pledged additional fiscal support to stimulate domestic consumption. However, market participants remain skeptical about the effectiveness of these measures.
On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded May iron ore contract edged up 0.19 pct to 774 yuan (USD 106.7) per ton, though it still posted a weekly decline of over 3 pct. Coke futures rose 1.1 pct to 1,657 yuan (USD 229) per ton, while coking coal futures climbed 1.79 pct to 1,083 yuan (USD 149) per ton.
On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar futures fell 0.67 pct to 3,252 yuan (USD 449) per ton, HRC futures dropped 0.85 pct to 3,363 yuan (USD 464) per ton, and wire rod futures declined 0.14 pct to 3,470 yuan (USD 479) per ton. In contrast, stainless steel futures rose 0.34 pct to 13,385 yuan (USD 1,847) per ton.
1 USD / 7.24 yuan
| Material | Closing Price (in yuan) |
Difference from Night Session (pct) |
Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct) |
| Wire Rod | 3,470 |
-0.14 |
-0.58 |
| HRC | 3,363 |
-0.85 |
-0.98 |
| Rebar | 3,252 |
-0.67 |
-0.92 |
| Stainless Steel | 13,385 |
0.34 |
-0.26 |
| Iron Ore | 774 |
0.19 |
0.13 |
| Coke | 1,657 |
1.10 |
1.15 |
| Coking Coal | 1,083 |
1.79 |
1.20 |
