The global long steel market is facing unprecedented protectionist measures, with governments worldwide imposing tariffs and trade barriers, according to the latest outlook from the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas).
Uncertainty driven by U.S. trade policies has disrupted markets, leaving industry players struggling to adapt. The U.S. appears to have found an effective protectionist strategy by creating uncertainty, making exports to the country increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, China’s post-congress economic outlook is promising, but whether planned steel production cuts materialize remains uncertain. With domestic prices weak, Chinese mills are prioritizing exports, limiting the likelihood of enforced production curbs.
In the EU, steel producers feel left behind in the rapidly evolving global trade landscape. The proposed revision of the EU safeguard measures lacks strong protections against surging imports, potentially exposing the region to further U.S. trade actions. Importers, however, argue that these policies favor inefficient steelmakers while harming downstream industries and consumers. New EU safeguards may slow exports to the region, reshaping trade flows.
The U.S. steel market has weakened, with demand largely driven by opportunistic buying ahead of expected tariff hikes. Construction activity remains sluggish due to economic uncertainty and high interest rates, leading to weaker demand for rebar. Domestic competition has intensified, with reinforcing bar production, outpacing consumption, making it harder for imports to compete. While a 25pct U.S. import tariff benefits low-cost producers, long steel price increases continue to lag behind flat products. Scrap prices have surged by nearly USD 30 per ton in recent weeks, forcing EAF-based mills to turn to semi-finished imports from Asia, particularly Turkey.
With cost pressures mounting, the market remains highly volatile, with intense competition keeping conditions uncertain, Irepas concluded.