Thursday, July 3, 2025
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    Iron ore futures rise, but demand outlook remains clouded

    Iron ore futures climbed on Wednesday, supported by strong steel production, particularly from blast-furnace-based mills that are currently enjoying healthy profit margins thanks to lower raw material costs. The positive momentum was further supported by lower shipments from major iron ore miners.

    Despite this support, demand concerns remain. Environmental restrictions on sintering operations in Tangshan, China’s key steelmaking hub, have added uncertainty to the near-term outlook. Some reports suggest these curbs will stay in place through September, which, while boosting steel futures in the short term, signal weaker iron ore consumption ahead.

    Over the longer term, the outlook for iron ore remains bearish due to continued weakness in China’s property sector, historically a major consumer of steel. Additionally, the rise in protectionist measures against Chinese steel exports may further suppress global iron ore demand.

    On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded September iron ore contract rose by 1.69pct to 722.5 yuan (USD 100.8) per ton. Coke and coking coal futures also gained, rising 3.15pct and 3.18pct to settle at 1,442 yuan (USD 201) and 843.5 yuan (USD 118) per ton, respectively.

    Meanwhile, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar futures climbed 2.61pct to 3,065 yuan (USD 428) per ton, HRC increased 2.24pct to 3,191 yuan (USD 445), wire rod rose 1.03pct to 3,337 yuan (USD 466), and stainless steel advanced 1.08pct to 12,670 yuan (USD 1,768) per ton.

    1 USD / 7.16 yuan

    CHINESE STEEL FUTURES
    Date: 7/02/2025
    Material
    Closing Price
    (in yuan)
    Difference from Night Session (pct)
    Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct)
    Wire Rod
    3,337
    1.03
    0.66
    HRC
    3,191
    2.24
    1.72
    Rebar
    3,065
    2.61
    2.02
    Stainless Steel
    12,670
    1.08
    0.87
    Iron Ore
    722.5
    1.69
    1.94
    Coke
    1,442
    3.15
    3.71
    Coking Coal
    843.5
    3.18
    3.44

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