Iron ore edges higher, weak fundamentals cap gains

Iron ore futures rose slightly on Friday, supported by expectations of tighter near-term supply, although weak steel demand and declining hot metal output continued to limit further gains.

Markets continued to balance potential short-term supply disruptions against weak underlying demand. Concerns over the planned July 16 strike at BHP’s Port Hedland operations and lower seaborne shipments following the end of major miners’ quarterly export programs provided some support to prices. However, shrinking steel mill margins, increasing blast furnace maintenance and lower hot metal output continued to reduce iron ore consumption. Although port inventories in China have eased slightly, they remain above 170 mln tons, limiting further upside in prices.

Adverse weather conditions also weighed on the market. Typhoon activity and persistent rainfall disrupted port operations in parts of China, reducing vessel unloading efficiency and slowing construction activity. Chinese traders said both steel supply and demand have softened, while export activity remained sluggish amid continued uncertainty in overseas markets. They added that steel prices have largely stabilized, although prolonged weak demand could result in further downward pressure.

Meanwhile, Baosteel raised domestic flat steel prices by 50 yuan (USD 7) per ton for August deliveries, reflecting mills’ efforts to stabilize the market despite subdued demand.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded September iron ore contract rose 0.87pct to 751.5 yuan (USD 110.8) per ton. Coking coal and coke futures fell 2.52pct and 1.87pct to 1,257.5 yuan (USD 185) per ton and 1,913 yuan (USD 282) per ton, respectively.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rebar futures edged down 0.06pct to 3,087 yuan (USD 455) per ton, while HRC futures declined 0.18pct to 3,291 yuan (USD 485) per ton. Wire rod futures fell 0.42pct to 3,330 yuan (USD 491) per ton, while stainless steel futures dropped 0.69pct to 14,290 yuan (USD 2,107) per ton.

1 USD / 6.78 yuan

ItemClosing Price (in yuan)Difference from Night Session (pct)Difference from Previous Morning Session (pct)
Wire Rod3,330.00▼ -0.42▼ -0.24
Hot Rolled Coils3,291.00▼ -0.18▼ -0.21
Rebar3,087.00▼ -0.06▼ -0.13
Stainless Steel14,290.00▼ -0.69▼ -0.70
Iron ore751.50▲ 0.87▲ 0.80
Coke1,913.00▼ -1.87▼ -1.67
Coking Coal1,257.50▼ -2.52▼ -2.58

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