The global long steel products market has entered a seasonal lull, with business activity expected to resume only after January 13, according to the International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association (Irepas). Key uncertainties loom post-holiday, including Chinese export trends, potential US policy changes under the new administration, and challenges facing the European steel industry.
While Asian markets remain cautiously optimistic about China, low domestic steel prices and sustained production levels may limit the short-term effect on exports. Steel exports from China rose in Q4, but falling demand and prices overseas have reduced export order volumes. Premier Xi Jinping’s commitment to achieving a 5pct GDP growth target suggests no significant production cuts are expected, potentially pressuring global steel prices outside the US.
Europe’s steel market remains difficult as energy prices have surged to 2022 levels, prompting mill shutdowns. Despite weak demand, domestic producers are holding prices steady to compete with imports. Mills have scaled back operations, yet prices have not dropped further. Long-term project pricing remains misaligned with replacement costs, adding to the challenges.
In the US, domestic mills are keeping prices low, offering discounts, and facing cautious buyers wary of price volatility. Interest rates remain high, discouraging investments, and US scrap prices are expected to decline in December for the first time in 20 years. Proposed trade duties could further complicate global trade dynamics. Irepas described the global long steel market as unstable and unpredictable, with competition increasingly localized. Challenges in pricing, demand, and trade policies are expected to persist into the new year.
