Steel demand in the MENA region is expected to decline in 2026, weighed by ongoing geopolitical tensions, before recovering strongly in 2027, the World Steel Association said in its Short Range Outlook.
MENA steel demand is forecast at 76.6 mln tons in 2026, down 4.5pct YoY, before rebounding 7.7pct to 82.4 mln tons in 2027.
The decline is primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the Middle East, where regional conflict has abruptly reversed earlier growth expectations. A recovery is anticipated next year, supported by the resumption of delayed projects and improved regional stability, the association said.
Steel demand in the Middle East is projected to fall sharply in 2026 amid ongoing conflict. Consumption is expected to decline 7.4pct YoY to 57.3 mln tons, before rebounding 8.6pct in 2027 to 62.2 mln tons.
Africa is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by infrastructure development and urbanization trends, the association said. Steel demand in Africa is forecast to rise 3.8pct in 2026 to 46.7 mln tons, followed by 4.6pct growth in 2027 to 48.8 mln tons. The region continues to benefit from ongoing investment in construction and diversification initiatives, reinforcing its role as a stable growth market.
Global steel demand is expected to stabilize in 2026 before gaining momentum in 2027. Demand is projected to increase 0.3pct YoY to 1.724 bln tons in 2026, followed by 2.2pct growth to 1.762 bln tons in 2027.
The outlook suggests the market is bottoming out after a prolonged downturn, with recovery supported by improving conditions in major economies.
China’s demand contraction is expected to ease to -1.5pct in 2026, with demand stabilizing in 2027, while India will remain the fastest-growing major market.
Demand in developed economies is also expected to return to growth, while steel demand excluding China is forecast to accelerate more strongly in 2027.
Near-term demand remains under pressure due to Middle East volatility, but a broader recovery is expected in 2027, driven by improving global conditions and a rebound in affected regions, the World Steel Association said.
| Regions | Steel consumption in mln tons | YoY growth rate in pct | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026 (f) | 2027 (f) | 2025 | 2026 (f) | 2027 (f) | |
| European Union (27) & United Kingdom | 144.9 | 146.7 | 151.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Other Europe | 46.8 | 48.8 | 49.1 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 0.5 |
| Russia & other CIS + Ukraine | 53.6 | 53.5 | 54.5 | -9.5 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
| USMCA | 128.4 | 131.1 | 134.1 | -1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Central and South America | 50.5 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 7.8 | -1.3 | 2.0 |
| Africa | 45.0 | 46.7 | 48.8 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Middle East | 61.8 | 57.3 | 62.2 | 3.8 | -7.4 | 8.6 |
| Asia and Oceania | 1187.2 | 1190.1 | 1211.4 | -3.5 | 0.2 | 1.8 |
| World | 1718.2 | 1724.1 | 1762.0 | -1.9 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| World excl. China | 922.2 | 940.1 | 977.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 4.0 |
| Developed Economies | 348.8 | 352.5 | 360.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| China | 796.0 | 784.1 | 784.1 | -7.1 | -1.5 | 0.0 |
| India | 159.8 | 171.6 | 187.4 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| Em. and Dev. Economies excl. China & India | 413.6 | 415.9 | 430.0 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| ASEAN (5) | 86.5 | 87.7 | 89.8 | 10.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| MENA | 80.2 | 76.6 | 82.4 | 5.2 | -4.5 | 7.7 |
f = forecast
ASEAN (5): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
